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The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by AHR Financial Planning Limited trading as AHR. AHR Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.
AHR Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe AHR Group. AHR Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.
Unless otherwise stated in relevant sections of the website, this website is targeted at investors who are generally classified as qualified, professional, accredited or institutional. The information contained in this website is directed only at persons in a country or jurisdiction where access to the information and the use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction when accessing the information contained in this website. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the services, funds and products included in this site. There will be no public offering of services, funds and products in the United States.
The services, funds and products will not generally be available to U.S. Persons.
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In these Terms
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From this Site we may provide information or hyperlinks to other websites or pages provided by other entities within the AHR Group (‘Local Sites’) and other parties. Your use of Local Sites and other parties’ sites may be subject to their own terms and conditions. You should read them.
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Changes to our Terms
You acknowledge that we may amend these Terms from time to time, at our sole discretion. If we elect to amend these Terms, the revised version will be posted on the Site. You undertake to check the Site regularly for any changes we may have made since your last visit to the Site, since any such changes will be binding on you. By using the Site after we have changed or amended these Terms, you acknowledge that you will be accepting those changes or amendments.
These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.
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The Content, including layout, of this Site or products or services available via this Site may be wholly or partially suspended, withdrawn or changed at any time.
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Weekly Market Update May Monday 16th 2022
US inflation stays stubbornly high
A combination of slowing economic data and inflation took their toll on markets once again this week. On Monday, data released by China showed export growth had fallen to its lowest level in two years last month, whilst the latest US consumer price index remained stubbornly high, coming in at 8.3%, above forecasts of 8.1%. Whilst growth in the UK was up 0.8% for the first quarter, the data revealed a contraction in the economy for the months of February and March as the inflationary environment took its toll. Against this background, markets continued to reprice towards an environment of higher inflation, slowing growth and rising rates.
As of 12pm on Friday, London time, US equities fell 4.7% over the week whilst the US technology sector dropped 6.4%. European stocks, despite their proximity to the Ukraine Russia conflict, rose 0.1%. The UK stock market lost a relatively modest 0.6% with the large cap index suffering most of the pain in a broad-based selloff, triggered by fears of recession from central bank tightening. Japanese equities fell 2.7% and the Australian market dropped 1.8%, whilst the emerging markets lost 4.2% with the Asia Pacific region accounting for most of the pain.
Chinese export growth falls to a two-year low
Year-on-year Chinese export growth came in at 3.9% for the year to April, sharply down from 14.7% for the year to March. This data came hot the heels of a weakening picture in the US and European manufacturing sectors. Key commodity prices weakened in response with copper falling 3.3%, currently trading at $9,103, iron ore down 7.9% and Brent crude falling 2.7%, trading at $109.3 a barrel.
Haven government bonds rise
Government bond yields (which move inversely to price) fell, reflecting the risk that central bank action to combat inflation leads economies into recession. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell as low as 2.82% on Thursday, now trading at 2.90%, having touched a new high in this economic cycle at 3.20% on Monday. Similarly German bund yields traded down to 0.89% and UK gilts to 1.71% by Friday.
Whilst gold offers no protection
Gold on the other hand failed to provide any defence as it fell 3.5% to trade at $1,817 an ounce, suffering from a US Federal Reserve which seems intent on dragging inflation back down through rate increases.
Issues under discussion
Rebalancing in market
It has been a torrid start to the year, as inflationary pressures have led to a decisive pivot from central banks as they look to tighten monetary policy in an attempt to get the inflation genie back into the bottle. The picture has been compounded by the Ukrainian war and China’s ongoing zero Covid policy. This has led most major markets to be in negative territory year to date, with some recording losses over one year, including the US market with the technology sector particularly badly affected.
These falls reflect a rebalancing in market pricing with the most expensive stocks being hit commensurately harder, whilst some of the cheaper stocks in the market have made gains. Without wanting to call a bottom to this weakness, we are reminded by research from Man Group, that year-on-year falls are relatively rare, particularly over the past decade. Further to this, history suggests where markets have fallen over a year, the returns over the following twelve months are positive, with a tendency for those markets with a greater exposure to riskier stocks performing better. Small-cap indices have often outperformed large-cap and technology-heavy markets have often posted some of the strongest returns. This holds true even if the research goes back to the 1960s to understand the effects of unorthodox monetary policy which may have artificially boosted returns in recent years.
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