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The Site has been approved for issue in the UK by AHR Financial Planning Limited trading as AHR. AHR Financial Planning is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), and is entered on the Financial Services Register with the firm reference number 208467.
AHR Financial Planning is part of a global group of businesses known asThe AHR Group. AHR Financial Planning Limited is registered in England and is established at 56, Wentworth Road, Blacker Hill, Barnsley, United Kingdom, S74 0RP, which is its registered office.
Unless otherwise stated in relevant sections of the website, this website is targeted at investors who are generally classified as qualified, professional, accredited or institutional. The information contained in this website is directed only at persons in a country or jurisdiction where access to the information and the use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction when accessing the information contained in this website. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the services, funds and products included in this site. There will be no public offering of services, funds and products in the United States.
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Changes to our Terms
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These Terms & Conditions were last updated on 6th February 2019.
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The Content, including layout, of this Site or products or services available via this Site may be wholly or partially suspended, withdrawn or changed at any time.
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Weekly Market Update July Monday 11th 2022
Equities recover a little as interest rate expectations fall
Equities recovered a little this week as markets scaled back interest rate expectations on early signs of an economic slowdown, with the manufacturing sectors outlook weakening in recent company surveys, as both employment intentions and new orders have waned. However, a key US jobs report is due out later today, the non-farm payrolls, for which investors will be looking for signs of easing that might provide an indication as to whether the US Federal Reserve can step back from its aggressive rate rise intentions.
As of 12pm on Friday, London time, US equities rose 2.0% over the week, whilst the US technology sector jumped 4.4%. European equities climbed 2.0%, whilst UK equities were flat. However, in a week when the Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally caved into pressure to resign following question marks over his integrity, more domestically focused mid cap stocks rose 1.0%. Japanese stocks held onto gains of 2.3%, despite the tragic news of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination, having been shot dead whilst at a campaign event for the Liberal Democratic party. The Australian market also managed to rise by 2.1%, despite the general weakness in commodity prices. Emerging market equities increased by 0.2%, with India rising by 3.0%, whilst China fell by 0.9%.
US yield curve inverts for the third time this year, considered a harbinger for a recession
Within government bond markets the difference between 10-year US Treasury yields and 2-year yields went into negative territory for the third time this year, which is considered a reliable indicator of a forthcoming recession within the next eighteen to twenty-four months. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose towards the end of the week to 2.98% ahead of the US jobs report, as did German bunds and UK gilts, now trading at 1.26% and 2.13% respectively.
Commodity prices continue to fall on rising recession fears
Commodities were generally weak as the market increasingly priced in the probability of a recession. Copper fell 2.8%, taking it down to $7,818 a tonne, iron ore fell 1.3%, and crude oil weakened sharply, with Brent crude falling by 6.0%, to $105.0 a barrel. Gold also fell, as although it is viewed as a haven asset, whilst central banks are looking to aggressively raise rates, the return from holding cash is looking relatively more appealing. Gold is now trading at $1,738 an ounce, having fallen 3.5% over the week.
Issues under discussion
The Bank of Japan’s yield curve control,
The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) yield curve control, where the central bank aims to keep the 10-year yield around zero, has increasingly been questioned by investors. The Yen has weakened dramatically this year, whilst the BoJ remains alone in keeping interest rates anchored at record low levels in order to exit the deflationary trap Japan found itself in over the past decade. Many investors believe this is the last shoe to drop before global yields reach an attractive entry point for investors. However, inflationary pressures, whilst being high in terms of Japan’s recent history, still look very tame versus other developed countries. Headline inflation is running at 2.5% (UK 9.1%, Europe 8.6%, US 8.6%), whilst excluding food and energy, it remains languishing at 0.2%. Therefore, views remain split as to whether the BoJ will relinquish their policy.
Nonetheless, fixed income looks much more attractive as an asset class today than it did only a few months ago, with US Treasury yields close to 3.0% versus the current US interest rate range lying between 1.50% to 1.75%, and the market pricing in a peak in rates of 3.3% in early 2023. Government debt is at least offering defensive characteristics once more, even if corporate debt has scope to sell off further should recession fears rise from today.
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Disclaimer: The material provided on this website does not constitute financial advice and is for information purposes only, the information provided is subject to change without notice.